[Satoshi Index] Seven-Day Top Crypto Traders Edge From 8% to 11% Long Since the Morning Edition; All Three Groups Still About 90% Short

‘Satoshi Index’ is a daily series in which Satoshi Note™, a crypto portfolio tracker, analyzes the current positions of top traders using on-chain data. Data refreshes hourly; figures reflect the aggregation time stated in the article. [Editor's note]

As of 4:13 p.m. KST on Oct. 23 (07:13 UTC), about 89% of the position notional held by the top 100 traders ranked on 7-day performance is short. Long positions total about $402 million and short positions about $3.20 billion, an 11% long share. The figures combine the 7-day top-100 accounts on four exchanges, Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX and Pacifica, summed by asset.

In this morning's edition, aggregated at 7:48 a.m. KST, the same 7-day group held about $283 million long and $3.30 billion short, an 8% long share. Over roughly eight and a half hours, long notional rose by $119 million and short notional fell by $100 million. After the group went from 72% long yesterday evening to 92% short this morning, the short tilt eased a little to 89% by the afternoon. On Hyperliquid, prices over the 24 hours to the aggregation time were close to flat for the large assets: Bitcoin (BTC) down 0.2%, Ethereum (ETH) down 0.1%, Solana (SOL) up 0.8% and Hyperliquid (HYPE) up 0.6%, while LIT fell 7.2% and Monero (XMR) 4.1%. Compared with the morning edition's price check, BTC, ETH, HYPE and SOL are 0.6% to 1.8% higher.

The 24-hour group moved from 94% short this morning to 92.5% short, with about $245 million long and $3.02 billion short. The 30-day group holds about $335 million long and $3.50 billion short, 91% short, unchanged from the morning. This is the second edition in a row in which all three groups are about 90% short.

Unrealized losses grew in all three groups since the morning. The 24-hour group went from a loss of about $20 million to about $64 million, the 7-day group from about $20 million to about $44 million, and the 30-day group from about $11 million to about $53 million. With close to nine-tenths of the notional short, this lines up with the main assets trading higher than in the morning at the time of the check. HYPE positions show the largest loss in all three windows: about $35.4 million in the 24-hour group, $38.5 million in the 7-day group and $50.5 million in the 30-day group. The largest gains are in Zcash (ZEC), about $7.5 million in the 24-hour group and $10.2 million in the 7-day group, and in NEAR, about $6.9 million in the 30-day group.

For Bitcoin (BTC), the 7-day group holds 84 long and 132 short accounts, with about $115 million long and $966 million short, 89% short. This morning it was 79 long and 141 short, 91% short. Long accounts rose by five and short accounts fell by nine, and long notional grew by $19 million from $96 million. The 24-hour group holds 77 long and 153 short, about $52 million long and $936 million short, 95% short, up from 93% in the morning. The 30-day group holds 104 long and 130 short, 94% short. BTC trades at about $81,850 on Hyperliquid.

For Ethereum (ETH), the 7-day group holds 73 long and 103 short accounts, about $53 million long and $873 million short, 94% short. This morning it was 61 long and 127 short, 96% short. Long accounts rose by 12 and short accounts fell by 24, taking the headcount long ratio from 32% to 41%. The 24-hour group holds 77 long and 132 short, about $33 million long and $883 million short, 96% short, and the 30-day group 78 long and 127 short, 92% short. ETH shows unrealized losses of about $11.0 million in the 24-hour group, $11.2 million in the 7-day group and $12.5 million in the 30-day group, larger than in the morning but small relative to the notional.

The largest change in the headcount long ratio within the 7-day group since the morning came in Hyperliquid (HYPE). In the 7-day group HYPE went from 49 long and 104 short accounts (32% long by headcount) to 57 long and 80 short (42%), 24 fewer short accounts. By notional it holds about $26 million long and $287 million short, with the long share up from 4% to 8%. In the 24-hour group, short accounts fell from 110 to 86 and short notional from $300 million to $174 million, taking the long share from 8% to 20%. Even so, HYPE shorts carry the largest unrealized loss in all three windows. HYPE rose 0.6% over 24 hours to $78.58 on Hyperliquid.

Among the top 20 assets by notional in the 7-day group, the number with more long than short notional went from zero this morning to two, LIT (50% long) and XMR (52%). XMR's long notional grew from $6 million to $19.8 million while its headcount long ratio fell from 52% to 43%, which points to a few large long positions lifting the share. NEAR's 7-day long accounts are nearly unchanged at 23 from 24, but its long notional grew from $1 million to $13 million and its unrealized loss narrowed from $18.8 million to $10.5 million. This morning XMR had more long than short accounts in all three windows; now only the 30-day group's XMR does. In the 24-hour group, the largest rises in the headcount long ratio came in Aave (AAVE) and HYPE, both a little over nine points.

A drop of 24 short accounts each for ETH and HYPE in the 7-day group does not mean those accounts closed their shorts. The ranking re-selects its top 100 by trailing 7-day performance at every aggregation, so over half a day of slightly higher prices, accounts whose shorts showed larger paper losses may have dropped out of the ranking and other accounts entered it. How much the morning and afternoon groups overlap, and whether any single account changed direction, cannot be known without fill records, which were not checked.

A few large positions can also sway the notional shares, and holdings on other exchanges or in spot are not aggregated, so hedging cannot be ruled out. Current positions alone do not establish an individual trader's overall strategy or the direction of the market.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only, based on public on-chain data, and does not recommend buying or selling any digital asset or any trading direction. The current positions and past performance of top traders do not guarantee future returns. All investment decisions and their consequences rest with the investor.