Cboe Volatility Index Jumps About 20% as Treasury Yields Fall

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose about 20% as U.S. Treasury yields fell across maturities, with investors reassessing U.S. growth risks and expectations for artificial intelligence spending.

The VIX measures expected swings in the S&P 500 over 30 days. Its rise indicated higher expected volatility in U.S. stocks.

Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott said equity volatility, skew and demand for tail hedges were “suddenly jacking higher” as markets repriced the probability of a U.S. growth scare amid a reset in AI capital-spending expectations.

Yields declined as investors moved defensively into government debt. The move followed an earlier drop in U.S. futures amid AI payback concerns, when Nasdaq-100 futures fell 1.8%, S&P 500 futures dropped 1% and the 10-year Treasury yield declined four basis points to 5.08%.

The moves linked questions about AI investment payback with higher stock volatility and a shift toward government debt.