Goldman Estimates China Gold Buying Exceeded Reported Reserve Additions by 83 Metric Tons

Goldman Sachs estimated Chinese gold buying exceeded reported central bank reserve additions by 83 metric tons from May through August, a gap that reflects two different measures of demand.

Goldman put the four-month estimate at 148 metric tons. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recorded 65 metric tons in reserve additions over the same period. The 83-metric-ton difference equals 128% of the additions, leaving Goldman’s estimate at more than twice the reported increase.

The monthly figures show the widest gap in May, when Goldman estimated 48 metric tons of buying against about 10 metric tons in additions. The figures were 40 and 15 metric tons in June, 35 and 20 in July, and 25 and about 20 in August. The difference narrowed from roughly 38 metric tons in May to 5 in August. About 63 metric tons of the cumulative gap came in May and June, compared with roughly 20 metric tons in July and August.

The estimates track different activity. Goldman’s figure draws on signals from London’s over-the-counter bullion market, while the PBOC figure measures changes in the central bank’s recorded reserves. Market activity does not necessarily appear in reserve disclosures in the same period. The difference alone does not show that the PBOC acquired an extra 83 metric tons beyond the increase in its reserve records.

China’s reported gold reserves increased by 23 metric tons in September, reaching 2,410 metric tons. The addition extended the central bank’s buying streak to 23 consecutive months.

Goldman also estimated global central bank gold buying at 79 metric tons in August. Publicly disclosed net additions for the month totaled 39 metric tons. Goldman’s estimate was about 4.6 times the 17-metric-ton monthly average before 2022.

China’s gold imports topped 1,000 metric tons through August.