S&P 500's 7,800 Test Follows Four Failed Bearish Setups

Four bearish chart patterns have failed to stop the S&P 500’s advance since March, adding caution to the index’s latest struggle to break above 7,800 as momentum weakens.

The index first reached the 7,800 area in late July and has since had difficulty moving decisively higher. It has repeatedly tested its rising 50-day moving average, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has posted lower highs since peaking in May.

Comparable technical warnings came before two of the largest market corrections of the past 18 months. From late 2024 into early 2025, technical warnings and failed breakout attempts preceded a sharp decline associated with the tariff tantrum. In late 2025, weakening momentum and difficulty clearing 7,000 came before a correction of about 10% alongside the Iran conflict.

Frank Cappelleri, founder and president of CappThesis, said, “The similarities don’t guarantee another significant decline, but they deserve attention.”

The current potential bearish formation remains incomplete. Further downside would be needed to complete it, while the four bearish patterns since March ultimately failed to end the index’s advance.