Gulf Crude Flows Near Prewar Pace as Product Exports Lag

Middle East crude flows have returned close to their prewar pace, while petroleum-product exports from the Gulf remain about 50% lower, leaving the region’s energy trade uneven across two major export categories.

A seven-day average put headline crude flows at about 24 million barrels per day, compared with a prewar baseline of about 23 million barrels per day. The product-export figure was also compared with prewar levels, but represents a separate category rather than a combined total. “Products have not followed,” said Phil Jones-Lux, a principal trading analyst.

A separate measure covering Sept. 1-28 put crude and condensate leaving the Middle East Gulf at least 16.5 million barrels per day, excluding Iran. That matched the same group’s prewar average, calculated over March 2025 through February 2026. The September volume and the newer seven-day measure use different periods, so their daily rates do not describe the same observation window.

The route mix also shifted. In September, 40% of regional crude left without crossing the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war. Saudi crude can move west through the East–West Pipeline to Yanbu, while crude from the United Arab Emirates can reach Fujairah through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline.

Pipeline routes avoid Hormuz, while offshore transfers involve crude that has crossed the strait. In August, more than 70% of the crude that crossed Hormuz was transferred to another tanker offshore in the Gulf of Oman. The September bypass share and the August transfer figure describe different route patterns.

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy announced April 12 that the East–West Pipeline had regained its full pumping capacity of about 7 million barrels per day after an attack cut throughput by about 700,000 barrels per day. That route carries crude toward Yanbu on the Red Sea.

The updated comparison follows earlier coverage of Gulf crude exports.