El Niño May Ease Winter Heating Demand Across Several Key Regions

Meteorologist James Block expects El Niño to curb winter heating demand across several major energy-demand regions, potentially easing fuel use while leaving the risk of short, severe cold spells intact.

Block projects temperatures in the Northern Plains, Northeast and parts of Canada to average 1.5 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal. The outlook points to warmer conditions in areas where cold weather can drive substantial heating needs.

Texas is expected to be colder and wetter than usual, though Block puts the chance of an extreme freeze below that of a typical winter. Across the broader southern United States, he expects wetter and stormier conditions; the forecast does not extend the cooler outlook to the entire region.

In Southern and Central Europe, temperatures could average 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal. The warming signal is less pronounced in Northern Europe, though temperatures there are still expected to trend above average. Block sees stronger signals for warmer conditions in India and Japan, while the outlook for China is less certain, particularly in the north, where much of the country’s energy demand is concentrated.

Block describes the current El Niño as the strongest of the period covered by modern sea-surface temperature monitoring, which began in the 1950s. Pacific temperature anomalies could exceed 3.5 degrees Celsius this season. The event is expected to peak in January, weaken afterward and return to normal by May 2027.

A warmer seasonal average would not rule out a sharp cold outbreak. Block identifies late January and early February as the most likely window for a severe episode, which could last one or two weeks. A nor’easter arriving alongside Arctic air could bring heavy snow to major cities in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

The outlook points to below-average heating-related energy demand for the winter, even as supplies such as heating oil remain tight. Energy markets also face disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the effects of refining constraints. Those constraints and geopolitical conflicts helped lift refined-product prices in the third quarter, when energy led broader commodity gains.

The weather outlook also has implications beyond heating. Block expects stronger U.S. wind speeds as the storm track shifts south, particularly in regions that generate wind power. He expects the southern United States to be wetter and stormier, while Europe could be warmer and drier than usual.