Bitcoin (BTC) Fell 13% on Average During Deep Global Stock Declines

Bitcoin fell in 93% of rolling four-week stretches when global stocks dropped more than 5%, while gold edged higher, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s record during sharp equity downturns over the decade through Jan. 30, 2026.

During those periods, the MSCI World Index lost 8% on average, Bitcoin dropped 13% and gold gained 0.4%.

“Historically, bitcoin hasn’t consistently protected portfolios during equity market weakness,” wrote Dana Harlap, global investment strategist, and William Smith, portfolio construction strategist.

A broader measure captures a different set of market conditions. Bitcoin’s monthly returns had a 0.18 correlation with the S&P 500 from January 2011 through June 2026, a period spanning rising and falling markets. That long-term measure covers a different window from the 93% figure, which looks only at four-week periods of steep losses in the MSCI World Index.

Volatility figures also show the scale of price moves across a longer period. From June 15, 2018, through June 17, 2026, annualized volatility calculated from daily returns was 60% for Bitcoin, 79% for Ether (ETH) and 19% for the S&P 500.