[Wall Street liquidity radar] Bitcoin’s U.S. discount widens as institutional trading falls

Bitcoin’s U.S. price discount widened in the latest daily reading while institutional trading fell sharply, leaving little evidence of a recovery in buying demand. The Coinbase premium remained negative, and Coinbase Prime trading volume dropped to 2,096.84 BTC.

The price gap and lower institutional activity point to subdued U.S. market participation. Neither measure establishes whether buying or selling dominated institutional trades.

The Coinbase premium’s latest snapshot on October 26 was -0.1515%. The daily series showed -0.1338% on October 22, -0.1372% on October 23 and -0.1465% on October 24. It narrowed to -0.1259% on October 25 before widening to -0.2072% on October 26.

A positive premium indicates a higher Bitcoin price on Coinbase than on Binance; a negative reading indicates a discount. The latest snapshot showed a smaller discount than the October 26 daily observation, but both remained negative, providing no clear confirmation of stronger U.S. buying.

Bitcoin: Coinbase premium (%)

Coinbase Prime, the institutional trading venue, recorded 2,096.84 BTC in trading volume on October 25, down from 3,727.66 BTC on October 24.

That volume measures trading activity rather than net purchases. Its decline means institutional participation did not provide confirmation of a buying recovery, while the direction of those trades remains unclear.

CFTC disclosures showed CME leveraged funds holding 5,466 long contracts and 10,408 short contracts as of October 20. Short positions outweighed longs. The figures are published weekly and therefore reflect an earlier reporting date.

The VIX reached 19.50 on October 26, compared with 19.45 on October 23. The series had risen from 16.68 on October 21 to 19.03 on October 22.

The volatility measure continued to rise, indicating a less settled backdrop for risk appetite. It offered no accompanying sign of easing equity-market uncertainty.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against major currencies, stood at 101.87 on October 26, compared with 101.81 on October 23. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.96% as of October 22. The firmer dollar and elevated yield added to the cautious market backdrop.

Taken together, the indicators did not establish a recovery in U.S. Bitcoin demand. A persistently negative premium, lower institutional turnover and rising volatility left the evidence for renewed buying inconclusive.

[Editor’s note] Wall Street liquidity radar examines four indicators of U.S. Bitcoin market sentiment: CME leveraged-fund positioning, the Coinbase premium, the VIX and Coinbase Prime trading volume. Together, they provide context on futures positioning, relative spot prices, equity-market uncertainty and institutional trading activity.