Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin’s Bear Market Ended in June

Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and describes the current phase as accumulation. Its assessment draws on price action around two moving averages and slower movement among long-dormant coins. Galaxy presents the call as an interpretation of market conditions, not proof that a lasting low is in place.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, authored the assessment. Its public page is dated Oct. 26, while the alert was first sent to Galaxy Trading and Galaxy Asset Management clients on Oct. 22. At 3:51 p.m. ET (19:51 UTC) that day, Bitcoin’s spot price was $81,391, 39% above its June 30, 2026, low and 35% below its October 2025 high.

Galaxy’s technical case tracks Bitcoin’s weekly closes against the 50-week moving average. BTC finished above that measure for five weeks in a row through Oct. 18, after 44 weeks below it. The move back above came in the week ending Sept. 20. In Galaxy’s framework, the 50-week average marks a trend threshold, while the 200-week average serves as a longer-term floor. During the June decline, Bitcoin’s worst weekly close was 4.7% below the 200-week average.

Galaxy sets $76,540 as a warning level tied to the 50-week average. A weekly close below that figure without a recovery within a month would challenge the firm’s assessment. The $76,540 level is a warning threshold, not the June low.

The firm also tracks coins that had stayed untouched for at least five years. Galaxy estimates their monthly movement averaged 67,000 BTC in 2024, 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 34,000 BTC so far in 2026. It interprets the slowdown as a sign that selling pressure has eased, and uses it alongside the moving-average trend in its accumulation view.

A prior analysis of Bitcoin’s bull-market case examined realized price, noting that Bitcoin’s daily closes stayed above that measure during the 2026 decline.

Galaxy’s cycle framework places its Oct. 22 observation at day 916 after the halving. It counts the three previous completed cycle lows at days 777, 889 and 912. Those historical comparisons offer context for the firm’s view but do not establish when another market low will occur. The stated test for the thesis remains a weekly close below $76,540 with no recovery within a month.