S&P 500 Rose in 21 Midterm Election Cycles, Averaging 16.6%

The S&P 500 gained in each of 21 historical periods running from November of a U.S. midterm election year through the following June. The periods averaged an increase of 16.6%.

The S&P 500 tracks 500 leading U.S. companies and represents about 80% of available U.S. market capitalization. This historical measure covers part of the midterm cycle, not the full calendar year after an election.

Across 19 presidential cycles from 1950 through 2025, the S&P 500 averaged a 17.2% price return in the calendar year after midterms. That separate historical measure does not establish a forecast for 2027. The 2026 U.S. midterms are scheduled for Nov. 3.