Bitcoin’s Older-Coin Realized Cap Share Falls From September High

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $80,134 as of 8:33 a.m. ET Tuesday (12:33 UTC). Coins last moved at least 18 months ago accounted for 26.59% of Bitcoin’s realized cap, down from a Sept. 16 high of 26.98%. Realized cap values coins at the price of their last on-chain move.

The share has historically risen and then declined before a strong rally. The current reversal remains modest. The market has shifted into a bullish cycle but remains in its early stages, with the relevant signal not yet begun.

Monthly on-chain volume from coins last moved at least five years ago averaged 34,000 BTC in 2026. Monthly on-chain volume from coins last moved at least five years ago averaged 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024.

The 18-month-to-two-year cohort is the only long-term-holder group currently in net loss, with a cost basis of $93,193. Older cohorts remain in aggregate profit, and Bitcoin has stayed above the two-to-three-year cohort’s cost basis. The current bear market is the first in which that has happened.