XRP’s Two Historical Bottoms Formed on Opposite Sides of a Bearish Crossover

Two historical XRP bottoms landed on opposite sides of a bearish moving-average crossover, leaving crypto analyst Egrag Crypto’s third-cycle timing estimate open to outcomes before or after the signal.

In an Oct. 26 post on X, Egrag compared the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) with the 33-period moving average on XRP’s monthly chart. The study measures the gap between a macro bottom and a bearish crossover in two earlier cycles.

TokenPost previously covered a separate Egrag Crypto XRP price scenario based on a historical-fractal setup. This chart focuses on timing around moving-average crossovers.

In the first cycle, the bottom came 244 days after the crossover. In the second, XRP bottomed 122 days before it, so the absolute gap shrank by 50% while the sequence reversed. In that later cycle, the crossover came after the low had formed, confirming it in the chart study rather than preceding it.

Applying another 50% reduction to the 122-day interval yields about 61 days. Egrag used that calculation to outline possible dates around an assumed October 2026 crossover: August 2026, about 61 days before; December 2026, about 61 days after; February 2027, about 122 days after; April 2027, midway between the 122- and 244-day gaps; and June 2027, about 244 days after.

The 61-day estimate is a mathematical observation based on two cycles, not a proven timing rule. Since one historical bottom came before the crossover and the other came afterward, the comparison does not establish which order a future cycle would follow. “Price action must confirm,” Egrag wrote.