Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Highest Reading in Data Dating to 2014

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold rose to 54%, the strongest reading in a series beginning in 2014, while its link to the Nasdaq-100 weakened as gold lost ground over the past month.

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 stood at 33%, down from 59% in February and close to a one-year low. Its correlation with the U.S. dollar strength index reached its most negative point since early 2023.

Gold declined 7% over the past month and briefly dropped below $4,000 an ounce, while Bitcoin was $80,654 at 8:30 p.m. ET Oct. 27 (00:30 UTC Oct. 28). Across 90 trading sessions, Bitcoin’s daily price moves were 1.7 times as large as gold’s.

Bitcoin gained an average of 1.1% on days gold rose, compared with a 1% average rise for gold. When gold fell, Bitcoin declined by an average of 0.5%, while gold dropped 1.1%.

Block Scholes research analyst Habib Rahman said the correlation shift began in June and accelerated in August after the U.S. Treasury expanded its bond buyback program to limit longer-term yields. In the following week, gold gained 5%, and Bitcoin recorded its biggest weekly advance since March 2024.

Rahman described November and December as seasonally bullish months for risk assets as the U.S. midterm elections approach. He said crypto assets may outperform during that period. The view adds a seasonal angle to earlier discussion of gold, equities and stablecoin flows as factors in Bitcoin’s trajectory.