TradingShot Links Microsoft’s $1,700 Scenario to a 50-Month Average

TradingShot’s conditional $1,700 scenario for Microsoft (MSFT) depends on the stock holding a 50-month moving average, a chart level the analyst compares with a structure from the 1990s internet boom.

TradingShot characterizes the shares as range-bound for about 18 months and says the monthly chart has continued to hold that average. The analyst also points to lower highs in the monthly relative strength index (RSI), which the post presents as a warning sign in the setup. The $1,700 outcome remains conditional on support continuing to hold. The historical analogy reflects TradingShot’s interpretation; chart indicators do not establish that Microsoft will repeat the earlier pattern.

The $1,700 level is a technical scenario, not a company price target. Microsoft’s financial results and spending outlook provide business context but do not confirm a particular share-price outcome.

For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Microsoft had $90 billion in revenue, up 18% from a year earlier, and $35.8 billion in GAAP net income, up 31%. Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $59.3 billion, rising 27%, while Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 43%. Commercial remaining performance obligations, representing contracted future business, totaled $678 billion, up 84%.

Microsoft’s capital expenditures for the June quarter were $41 billion, including finance-lease effects. The company expects capital expenditures to rise year over year across its portfolio in fiscal 2027. Microsoft also expects to remain free-cash-flow positive during fiscal 2027.

The chart scenario sits within a wider debate over whether AI valuations resemble the dot-com period. Howard Marks has described mixed signals: investors may worry about missing technology gains while also watching for bubble risks, and leading AI companies have revenue, earnings and cash flow. Those arguments appear in an earlier discussion of AI bubble risks.

Microsoft is scheduled to release its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results after the market closes Wednesday, Oct. 28. Its earnings webcast is set for 5:30 p.m. ET (21:30 UTC), providing the next update on cloud growth and companywide capital-spending plans.