Bitcoin (BTC) Recovery Faces Potential 874,000 BTC Supply Near $82,500

An estimated 874,000 BTC has a cost basis between $81,000 and $82,500, a band that could become a source of supply if the price returns to it.

The holdings are grouped by estimated acquisition price. The cluster is an estimate of potential supply; it does not establish that holders have placed sell orders or intend to sell. The cluster represents potential supply during a recovery attempt.

Bitcoin’s trading range had a lower boundary of $81,300 for several weeks before three consecutive daily closes below it on Oct. 22, 23 and 24. Bitcoin reached $79,250 on Oct. 24, with $81,300 serving as resistance after those closes.

A separate cluster included 739,000 BTC acquired between $77,500 and $80,000, as of Oct. 25. The True Market Mean was $77,765.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a net $110.3 million on Oct. 26, with the full amount going to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). The funds had combined outflows of $773.5 million across Oct. 22 and 23.

ETF flows and cost-basis clusters measure different activity: one tracks net fund flows for a session, while the other groups Bitcoin by estimated purchase prices. The Oct. 26 inflow followed two sessions of withdrawals, but that one-day figure does not establish the direction of later flows.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy decision Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 2 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC), followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (18:30 UTC).