Morgan Stanley Sees 8% S&P 500 Downside, Keeps 8,000 Target

Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 potentially dropping to about 7,100 in the near term, roughly 8% below recent levels, while keeping its year-end base-case target at 8,000.

Mike Wilson, the bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist, identified pressure on artificial intelligence financing, the U.S. midterm elections and tighter financial conditions as risks that could push the index lower in the coming weeks.

A move to 7,100 would mark the index’s largest correction since market turmoil linked to the Iran war earlier this year. The 8,000 target is about 12% above 7,100.

The figures describe different horizons in Morgan Stanley’s view: 7,100 is a possible near-term level, while 8,000 remains its year-end base case. The bank still expects the market to move higher before year-end.