Bitcoin tests $80,000 support as tech earnings and inflation shape $85,000 breakout prospects

Bitcoin’s repeated tests of $80,000 support have put technology earnings, oil prices and US monetary policy at the center of its next move. Coin Bureau’s analysis identified $85,000 as the key upper boundary, with spot demand and ETF flows needed to confirm any sustained break from the range.

In his October 28 Coin Bureau broadcast, Guy said Bitcoin was holding its floor while successive highs moved lower. He described a market being compressed by selling pressure from above, with the narrowing trading range unlikely to persist indefinitely.

Bitcoin had traded mostly between $80,000 and $85,000 in recent weeks after reaching roughly $87,000 at the start of the month, he said. It fell to about $79,000 on the 24th, approached that level again on the 26th and touched about $79,400 the day before the broadcast. Each time, buyers brought the daily close back above $80,000.

Guy identified a substantial supply of coins whose holders could sell as prices returned to their purchase levels. About 874,000 BTC was acquired between $81,000 and $82,500, while the average purchase price for US spot ETF buyers was approximately $81,500 and that of corporate treasuries was about $80,200. Resistance near $87,000 also included the yearly opening price around $87,500 and the 20-month moving average near $87,200.

Citing Glassnode’s models, he said short liquidation clusters extended from $85,000 to $87,500, where forced buying could reinforce an upward move. Below $80,000, he highlighted long liquidation concentrations between $76,000 and $78,000 and Glassnode’s true market mean near $77,600 as levels relevant to the analysis’s $75,000 downside scenario.

Technology earnings were a central external catalyst. Guy said cloud revenue at Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon would help investors assess whether heavy AI infrastructure spending was generating sufficient returns. Meta’s October 22 results showed quarterly capital expenditure of $34.9 billion, exceeding operating cash flow, followed by a share-price decline of about 7%. He said Bitcoin’s close correlation with AI stocks and the NASDAQ made those earnings relevant to crypto markets.

Institutional flows also showed signs of risk aversion, according to the broadcast. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded approximately $636 million in outflows on the 22nd and another $138 million the following day. Corporate activity was mixed: Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases for the week of the 19th and spent $205 million repurchasing preferred stock, while Strive bought $511 million worth of BTC.

Oil above $100 a barrel added pressure through inflation and interest rates, Guy said. He reported that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve had fallen from roughly 415 million barrels before the Iran conflict to about 282 million barrels. Higher energy costs could feed into transport and goods prices, while a stronger-than-expected core Personal Consumption Expenditures reading could reduce the Federal Reserve’s willingness to cut rates. With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, he said, Bitcoin faced greater competition from interest-bearing assets.

To assess whether a breakout had durable support, Guy emphasized spot buying alongside derivatives positioning. Exchange balances stood at about 2.51 million BTC, a two-month high, while large Hyperliquid traders had 53.5% of approximately $8.1 billion in positions betting on declines. He said short covering alone would provide insufficient confirmation. Open interest had declined to roughly $53 billion and funding was mildly positive; the analysis called for watching whether gains could hold without a surge in leveraged long positions.

ETF participation and closing prices rounded out the confirmation criteria. Guy said sustained inflows should extend beyond BlackRock’s IBIT to Fidelity, Bitwise and ARK products. He identified a daily close above the 50-day exponential moving average near $80,600, followed by a weekly close above $85,000, as evidence of improving price structure. Conversely, a daily close below $80,000 alongside ETF outflows and rising exchange balances would support the analysis’s downside scenario. His central test was whether spot demand, ETF flows and daily and weekly closes pointed in the same direction.