Bitcoin Fell 4.2% Through Oct. 25 as Spot Demand Stayed Negative

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 4.2% through Oct. 25, putting it on pace for a second consecutive October loss as spot-demand readings stayed negative and Coinbase’s BTC market traded below Binance’s.

BTC closed at $80,051 on Oct. 25, down from $83,567 on Sept. 30. October 2025 ended 3.8% lower. Every October from 2020 through 2024 was positive, with an average return of 18.1% and a median of 19.2%. Those five gains ranged from 5.5% to 40.0%. If the 2026 loss held through month-end, it would be the weakest October in the available comparison since 2020.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which compares BTC/USD on Coinbase with BTC/USDT on Binance, averaged -0.093% through Oct. 25, versus -0.030% in September. It was negative on each of October’s first 25 days. A negative reading means Bitcoin was priced lower on Coinbase than on Binance, indicating weaker relative buying on Coinbase. The index does not establish that U.S. investors overall were net sellers.

The 30-day apparent-demand measure was -76,000 BTC on Oct. 25. Spot-demand readings were negative each day from Oct. 14 through the Oct. 25 snapshot.

The 10-indicator Bull Score Index fell to 60 from 90 in late September and early October. Six indicators remained bullish, leaving the gauge in a cooling phase. A score of 50 or below would signal a regime change.

The price premium over realized price for coins held one to three months dropped to 8.1% on Oct. 26 from 33.4% on Sept. 22. The cohort’s realized price was $74,041 on Oct. 26.

The Federal Open Market Committee held its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28. The 10-2 vote was announced at 2 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC), with two members preferring a quarter-point increase.