Federal Reserve Holds Rates in 10-2 Vote as Two Members Back a Hike

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged Oct. 28, while third-quarter gains in Bitcoin and Ether still leave the start of a sustained crypto bull market without a confirmed date.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its federal funds rate target at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 decision. The announcement came at 2 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) Oct. 28. Both dissenting voters supported a quarter-point hike.

Bitcoin (BTC) advanced 43% over the three months ending Sept. 30, reaching $83,600. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds logged $7 billion in net inflows over the same period. Those measures cover the quarter through Sept. 30, so they describe completed activity rather than October trading.

Ether (ETH) outperformed BTC by roughly 20%. Total value locked in Ethereum decentralized finance rose from $37 billion to $53 billion. Together, the figures show that the quarter’s gains extended beyond Bitcoin and included increased value in Ethereum DeFi.

A four-year-cycle thesis places a possible market low around November 2026, four years after the previous bear-market low in November 2022. The low may already have occurred in July or could come later, making November a scenario rather than a confirmed turning point.

Historical cycles are not reliable for market timing. A possible market low would not establish when a sustained rally might begin or how long a recovery might take to broaden. TokenPost previously covered Variant Fund partner Alana Levin’s view that crypto had bottomed in July.

“The more important point for investors is that adoption of digital assets has happened in waves, which can perpetuate cycles,” said Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets.

The Fed’s rate decision and the quarter-end market figures do not set a date for a new bull run. November remains a possible cycle marker, while the start of a sustained rally is unsettled.