Bitcoin Options Show a 0.1-Point Short-Term Volatility Gap Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Bitcoin (BTC) options showed a 0.1-volatility-point difference between 7–14-day and 30–60-day forward implied volatility readings ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms, compared with a 10.8-point gap before the 2024 presidential election.

The Oct. 26, 2026 snapshot put annualized implied volatility at 37.8% for the period spanning days seven through 14, which includes Election Day; the observation was taken at 5 a.m. ET (09:00 UTC). The 30–60-day reading was 37.7%, a gap of 0.1 volatility point. The 14–30-day reading was 35.0%, putting the 7–14-day reading 2.8 points higher.

The Oct. 28, 2024, comparison, made eight days before that year’s presidential election, showed 62.7% for the 7–14-day window, 51.9% for 30–60 days and 48.3% for 14–30 days. The 7–14-day reading was 10.8 volatility points above the 30–60-day measure and 14.4 points above the 14–30-day measure.

Implied volatility is derived from options prices and expresses expected volatility on an annualized basis. A 37.8% reading is not a forecast that Bitcoin will move 37.8% during election week, and it does not indicate whether the asset will rise or fall. The readings compare different forward periods; the gap between them does not isolate election-related pricing from other factors affecting options.

The comparison also spans different election and policy settings. The 2024 vote was for president, while the 2026 midterms cover every House seat and about one-third of Senate seats. The Federal Reserve lowered its target range by half a percentage point to 4.75%–5.00% in September 2024. In September 2026, it raised the range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, then held it there Oct. 28 in a 10–2 vote.

Research analyst Thahbib Rahman wrote, “This suggests a substantially smaller election-specific volatility premium in 2026 compared with 2024.”

A separate calculation compared daily Bitcoin returns with daily changes in Kalshi’s probability of Democratic control of the Senate through Oct. 26. The average correlation was −0.02. That figure describes those specific measures over that period and does not establish how Bitcoin would respond to an unexpected result. The midterms are scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.