Two Forecasts Put Japan Ahead of China in 2026 LNG Imports

Japan could narrowly finish 2026 as the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer, potentially ending China's recent lead, though estimates differ and September imports still favored China.

One projection puts Japan’s 2026 LNG imports at 62 million metric tons and China’s at 61 million. A second projection puts Japan at 63 million metric tons and China at 62 million. Each pair gives Japan a lead of 1 million metric tons.

The estimates would mark another change in the ranking. China was the top LNG importer in 2021, Japan led in 2022, and China held the top spot from 2023 through 2025.

Other projections point to a less certain outlook. A separate projection puts China’s 2026 LNG imports at 75.6 million metric tons, up 11% from 2025, while Japan’s imports are expected to remain broadly flat. Other projections put China’s LNG imports at 60.6 million metric tons, while separate estimates put Chinese LNG demand at 63.5 million metric tons and Japanese demand at 64.9 million metric tons. A further projection puts China’s LNG imports at 62.4 million metric tons in 2026, down from 66.4 million in 2025. The estimates do not reconcile into one clear ranking.

September figures showed China importing 5.61 million metric tons of LNG, compared with Japan’s 4.78 million. Japan’s preliminary total fell 7.3% from a year earlier, so the full-year forecasts are not yet reflected in the latest monthly comparison.

High spot prices and expectations of a mild winter have weighed on Chinese purchases. China can also draw on domestic gas, pipeline imports and renewable energy. China's underground gas storage was estimated at 80% to 90% full at September's end. Japan's LNG demand is also declining, with nuclear reactor restarts among the factors.

The Japan/Korea Marker spot LNG benchmark rose from the low $25s per million British thermal units at September's end to the high $31s on Oct. 23. If Chinese buyers reduce spot purchases, competition for cargoes in Asia and Europe could ease, but the estimates do not establish that supply has been freed up.

ICIS analyst Alex Siow described it as a “much more fundamental demand change than a temporary glitch.”