XRP’s November Average Hides a Median Loss Across 13 Years

XRP’s average November return was 78.3% across 13 years, but the median month lost 9.1%, showing how a handful of sharp rallies can reshape the seasonal statistic.

The series covers November returns from 2013 through 2025, using monthly U.S. dollar closes on UTC calendar boundaries. Six of the 13 months finished higher; the other seven were flat or negative. That puts the arithmetic average and the middle result on opposite sides of zero.

The mean is calculated by adding the monthly returns and dividing by the number of observations. The median is the return at the center after the months are ranked. Both describe the same set of 13 months, but they answer different questions: the mean captures the combined effect of every return, while the median identifies the result in the middle of the sample.

Four months topped 100%: November 2013 returned 489.1%, November 2014 gained 148.2%, November 2020 rose 179.2% and November 2024 advanced 282.9%. Their combined gains amount to about 1,099 percentage points.

That four-month total exceeds the roughly 1,018 percentage points represented by the sum of all 13 returns. The other nine months together offset about 82 percentage points, averaging a loss of roughly 9%. In other words, the positive full-sample mean reflects a small number of exceptionally strong months alongside a negative average for the rest.

Each month counts as one observation in this calculation. A 489.1% return therefore has a large effect on the average, just as a loss reduces it. The 78.3% figure does not describe a month that most closely resembles a typical result; the median loss of 9.1% is closer to that middle outcome in this sample.

The 12-year November average was 81.3%. Extending the series through November 2025 gives a 13-month sample with a 78.3% mean and a 9.1% median loss. The two averages cover different periods; the current calculation also gives the middle result, which the average alone does not show.

The close-to-close method measures the change between monthly closing prices at UTC calendar boundaries. It does not describe every price move within a month. The figures are historical returns for the calendar month, not a record of the path XRP took between the closes.

Thirteen observations also make for a small sample. The median identifies the center of these past results, but it does not establish what will happen in November 2026. A mean or median drawn from a short history cannot turn a seasonal comparison into a forecast for a particular month.

Market access changed near the end of the period. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) began trading Sept. 18, 2025, after 12 of the 13 November observations in the sample had occurred. November 2025 is the only observation that followed its launch. The historical series does not establish whether the ETF affected XRP’s November return or whether it will change future seasonal patterns.

The record shows why the average and median tell different stories: a few large gains can lift the mean even when the middle November is negative. Neither figure determines the next month’s direction.