VanEck Ties Bitcoin’s $500,000 Target to Half of Gold’s Market Cap
The projection values that share at about $14 trillion and sets a five- to 10-year horizon, without requiring the target in the current market cycle.

VanEck’s Nov. 2 outlook links a $500,000 Bitcoin (BTC) target to the asset capturing about half of gold’s market capitalization by 2030 to 2035, a share the analysis values at roughly $14 trillion.
VanEck senior researcher Mathew Sigel and his team put the target at about 5.6 times the Bitcoin price used in their analysis. They set a five- to 10-year horizon and do not require the target to be reached during the current market cycle.
The team’s case rests on adoption by younger customers in emerging markets and continued accumulation by global institutions. VanEck views Bitcoin as being near the start of a bull market.
Bitcoin gained more than 40% in the third quarter, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold over the same period. VanEck uses Bitcoin’s share of gold’s market capitalization as a valuation reference.
TokenPost has previously covered Sigel’s comparison of Bitcoin and gold as portfolio assets.