[Wall Street liquidity radar] Bitcoin’s US discount widens again as buying conviction remains unclear

Institutional trading increased sharply, but bitcoin continued to trade at a discount in the US, with the gap widening again in the latest completed session. Higher trading activity alone does not establish stronger US buying conviction.

The Coinbase premium, a measure of the US spot price gap against overseas markets, stood at -0.27% on October 29, -0.24% on October 30, -0.20% on October 31, -0.16% on November 1 and -0.18% on November 2. The discount widened in the latest completed session. The live reading was -0.17% at 13:00 UTC on November 3.

A positive premium means bitcoin trades at a higher price in the US than overseas; a negative reading means it trades lower. The consistently negative readings and renewed widening in the latest completed session leave US buying strength unconfirmed.

Coinbase Prime, the institutional trading platform, recorded volume of 7,794.75 BTC on November 2, up from 3,035.64 BTC on November 1. Valued at the November 2 closing price, that volume was worth approximately $597.66 million.

The increase points to greater institutional participation through the platform. Trading volume includes both purchases and sales, however, so it does not establish that institutional flows favored buying.

CFTC disclosures showed CME leveraged funds held 5,887 long contracts and 9,866 short contracts as of October 27. Shorts exceeded longs, indicating a tilt toward downside positioning. These figures are published weekly and therefore reflect an earlier snapshot.

The VIX volatility index closed at 21.15 on November 2, up 1.73 points from 19.42 on October 30.

The VIX measures expected volatility in US equities. Its rise signals greater anticipated market swings, adding a reason for caution when assessing crypto risk.

The dollar index closed at 101.75 on November 2, down 0.13 from 101.88 on October 30. The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.94% on October 30. A softer dollar can ease pressure on risk assets, while the level of Treasury yields remains relevant to the broader backdrop.

Taken together, the readings suggest caution still outweighs clear buying conviction in the US despite greater institutional trading activity. The indicators to watch are whether the US spot discount narrows at completed daily readings, institutional volume remains elevated and equity volatility eases.

[Editor’s note] Wall Street liquidity radar examines US bitcoin sentiment through four indicators: CME leveraged-fund positioning, the Coinbase premium, VIX volatility and Coinbase Prime trading volume. Together, they provide context for short-term market conditions and institutional participation.