Treasury Assumes $150 Billion Cash Increase in First Quarter

The U.S. Treasury’s Nov. 2 borrowing estimates assume its cash balance will rise $150 billion in the first quarter, a projected shift that does not establish a Bitcoin price effect.

The estimates put Treasury cash at $984 billion at the end of September and assume it will fall to $850 billion by Dec. 31. That $134 billion decline covers the entire fourth quarter, including movements before the estimates were released. It is not a forecast of cash still to enter markets after Nov. 2.

For January through March 2027, Treasury estimates $800 billion in privately held net marketable borrowing and assumes a March 31 cash balance of $1 trillion. The $150 billion increase is the difference between the assumed year-end and March balances, not a confirmed cash flow.

Treasury estimates fourth-quarter borrowing at $618 billion, $10 billion below its August estimate. Excluding the higher-than-assumed opening cash balance, the current estimate is $24 billion above the earlier one. The fourth-quarter opening balance is listed as $984 billion, compared with the previous $950 billion assumption.

Privately held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers of securities held in the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account while including financing needed for redemptions from that account.

The Treasury General Account (TGA) is the federal government’s account at the Federal Reserve. Treasury payments from the account increase recipient banks’ reserves, all else equal. “When the Treasury makes a payment, we debit the TGA and credit the recipient bank's reserve account,” Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher J. Waller said in a July 2025 speech.

Average reserve balances were $2.893770 trillion for the week ended Oct. 28, down $68.837 billion from the previous week. The TGA’s weekly average rose $47.725 billion to $999.727 billion over the same period. Those simultaneous movements do not establish that the TGA increase caused reserves to fall.

Treasury has scheduled additional quarterly refunding details for Nov. 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET.