IEA Warns EU Gas Storage Could Fall Below 10% by March 2027

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that EU gas storage could slip below 10% of working capacity by the end of March 2027 if winter weather is colder than average and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.

At the opening of the 2026-27 heating season, EU gas inventories were at their lowest level since 2013. The smaller reserve leaves the bloc with less stored fuel to absorb supply interruptions and increases its dependence on global liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The IEA said low storage could intensify competition for flexible LNG cargoes with importers in parts of Asia and South America, where storage options are limited. That competition could add upward pressure to spot prices when demand is high.

Gas withdrawal rates tend to slow once storage falls below 30% of working capacity, limiting how quickly reserves can cover demand. Low inventories would also substantially increase the need to refill storage during summer 2027, potentially extending market tightness into the following year.