Thielen Says Options Trading Has Made Bitcoin’s Sharpest Rallies Less Common

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, says institutional call-option selling and profit-taking by large Bitcoin holders have made the asset’s sharpest rallies less common, while he still projects $90,000 by year-end 2026.

Thielen projects Bitcoin (BTC) at $90,000 by year-end 2026, though he sees a possible drop into the mid-to-high $70,000s first. He ties the less frequent sharp surges to institutional traders selling call options after prices rise and to large holders taking profits. He described each cycle as bringing a different set of promoters and investors. His broader view is that Bitcoin has become more sensitive to Wall Street trading strategies and macroeconomic news. Investors reacting to economic data and Federal Reserve decisions may drive bursts of activity, then wait for another catalyst, he said. Thielen also sees institutions and sovereign wealth funds as potential buyers.

He estimated market makers account for as much as half of roughly $60 billion in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows he reviewed. Thielen believes some of those ETF positions were held to hedge options trades, meaning the inflows may not all reflect outright buying. For Thielen, that distinction complicates a simple reading of ETF flows as new directional demand. The estimate adds a market-structure angle to TokenPost’s earlier coverage of Bitcoin funds and institutional demand. Form 13F filings give a quarter-end snapshot of certain securities positions, including eligible ETF shares, and their fair market values. Managers overseeing at least $100 million in Section 13(f) securities generally must submit Form 13F; the filing does not reveal why they held a position.

Thielen also expects Bitcoin to outperform Ether (ETH). He argues that activity on Ethereum does not clearly translate into financial benefits for tokenholders. Ethereum burns transaction base fees, and the amount burned varies with network activity.

The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range at 3.75%-4% on Oct. 28, after raising it by 0.25 percentage point on Sept. 16. The Oct. 28 decision came at 2 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) in a 10-2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase, while the Fed’s statement said inflation remained elevated. Thielen expects another rate increase by December, followed by a more cautious approach to later hikes.