US Treasury projects $618 billion in fourth-quarter borrowing, $800 billion for first quarter

US Treasury net marketable borrowing is expected to fall to $618 billion in the fourth quarter of 2026, below its previous estimate, as a larger opening cash balance reduced funding needs. Borrowing is projected to rise to $800 billion in the first quarter of 2027.

In its “Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates” report published on November 2, 2026, the US Department of the Treasury said expected privately held net marketable borrowing for October–December 2026 assumes an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. The borrowing estimate is $10 billion below the forecast announced in August 2026.

Treasury attributed the downward revision primarily to a higher-than-assumed opening cash balance, partly offset by lower projected net cash flows. Excluding the effect of the larger opening cash balance, the quarter’s borrowing estimate is $24 billion above the August forecast.

For January–March 2027, Treasury projected privately held net marketable borrowing of $800 billion, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $1 trillion.

Actual privately held net marketable borrowing for July–September 2026 was $742 billion, Treasury said, with a quarter-end cash balance of $984 billion. Its August estimate had put borrowing at $739 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $950 billion.

Treasury described actual borrowing as $4 billion above its earlier estimate, primarily because the closing cash balance exceeded expectations, partly offset by higher net cash flows. Excluding the effect of the larger closing cash balance, actual borrowing was $30 billion below the August forecast.

Treasury said additional financing details for its quarterly refunding would be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.