Bitcoin Holders’ Estimated On-Chain Net Profit Reaches $7.86B in October as BTC Falls 7%

Bitcoin (BTC) holders recorded an estimated $7.86 billion in on-chain net realized profit in October even as BTC fell 7%, showing gains on transferred coins during a losing month.

Every asset tracked in the October tally ended the month lower. Bitcoin’s decline added to pressure on its “Uptober” narrative, a market label tied to the asset’s historically strong October performance. The price drop and the on-chain profit figure measure different things, so both can hold true for the same month.

The profit measure compares a coin’s price when it moves with its price at its previous transfer. It treats the new transfer as a presumed sale, making the $7.86 billion an estimate of net realized profit rather than a record of actual sale proceeds. BTC transferred during the Binance attack is included in the calculation.

That distinction matters when reading the headline figure. A recorded transfer does not, by itself, establish that its owner sold the coin for cash. The estimate therefore cannot be treated as $7.86 billion paid out to Bitcoin holders, even though the measure classifies gains and losses at the time coins move.

Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added about 91,500 BTC from Sept. 18 through Oct. 31. The group held 68.13% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The accumulation window extends beyond October and describes that wallet group, rather than all Bitcoin holders.

Ether (ETH) showed a different result, with about $510 million in net realized losses. Ether recorded net realized losses on 16 of the 18 days beginning Oct. 14. Those daily readings concern coins that moved; they do not establish that all Ether holders’ positions were at a loss.

Bitcoin’s weighted sentiment reached a three-month low Oct. 29 before rising to its most positive reading of October by Oct. 31. That shift occurred as discussion of the Binance attack rose sharply, though the sentiment reading and the count of security-related mentions measure different activity.

Mentions of “hack,” “hacked” or “exploit” tied to the Binance attack reached 2,995 on Oct. 30, nearly double the 1,532 peak associated with the Bybit incident. Relative to each event’s baseline, the spikes were similar: 9.7 times for Binance and 10.8 times for Bybit. The larger raw count for Binance did not represent a larger proportional increase.