China's Estimated CO2 Emissions Fall 3.1% in Third Quarter

Lower oil consumption helped push China's estimated carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement down 3.1% from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2026, while clean-power generation expanded.

The July-to-September drop was the steepest quarterly decline since the 2022 COVID lockdowns. Estimated emissions across the first nine months of 2026 were 0.5% below the same stretch in 2025. The quarterly figure combines official statistics and commercial data rather than representing a government-issued emissions total. All quarterly percentages compare July through September 2026 with the same three months in 2025, rather than with the preceding quarter.

Oil use fell 4% during the quarter compared with a year earlier. Within that total, transport oil use declined 9%, a sharper contraction than the overall oil figure. Disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz crisis weighed on oil demand, though the emissions decline reflected several changes in energy use.

Coal use was down 3% over the same period, while power generation from coal fell 3.3%. The figures measure different things: coal consumption and electricity generated by coal-fired plants. Slower growth in coal-to-chemical production also contributed to the decline in fossil-fuel use.

Electricity generation from solar, wind and nuclear sources rose by a combined 110 terawatt-hours from a year earlier. That gain was more than double the increase in total electricity demand during the quarter. The difference helps explain why coal-fired generation fell even as overall demand for electricity grew.

Less wind and solar curtailment meant more available output from those sources reached the grid. Curtailment occurs when available generation is reduced instead of being used. Milder weather and slower growth in power demand further limited the need for fossil-fuel generation.

The third-quarter estimate extends a broader pattern that began in March 2024. Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta wrote that China's emissions have been “flat or falling” since then. Whether that pattern continues depends on energy-demand growth, further expansion of clean power and the grid's ability to absorb wind and solar generation.