Treasury Cash Forecast Gives Bitcoin Traders a December Watchpoint

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s year-end cash plan gives Bitcoin traders a December liquidity variable to monitor, but its projections do not confirm higher bank reserves or stronger crypto demand.

The Treasury General Account (TGA), the federal government’s operating account at the Federal Reserve, could reach $1.025 trillion, plus or minus $50 billion, in late November 2026 and late January 2027. Treasury assumes the TGA will hold $850 billion on Dec. 31, 2026. The figures describe two potential peaks and a year-end assumption; the plan does not lay out a daily December cash path.

Treasury plans to maintain benchmark bill auction sizes at current levels into late November and may issue a short-dated cash management bill near month-end. It expects to reduce shorter-dated bill auction sizes during December, citing projected corporate and non-withheld tax receipts around midmonth. The department anticipates increasing auction sizes across the bill curve in January as seasonal fiscal outflows rise.

The cash movements do not point in only one direction. Tax payments into the TGA can reduce bank reserves, all else equal, while Treasury spending from the account can raise them. The expected December bill reductions are tied to tax receipts, which also move cash into Treasury’s Fed account. Actual receipts, spending, debt issuance and other Federal Reserve balance-sheet changes will determine the net effect.

Treasury’s Nov. 2 borrowing outlook projected $618 billion in privately held net marketable borrowing for October through December 2026, assuming an $850 billion end-December cash balance. For January through March 2027, Treasury projected $800 billion in borrowing and assumed a $1 trillion end-March balance. The Wednesday, Nov. 4, plan adds projected cash peaks and a more detailed bill-auction sequence to that outlook.

Separately, Treasury offered $125 billion of securities to refinance about $97 billion in privately held notes and bonds maturing Nov. 15, with about $28 billion expected in new cash from private investors. Auctions are scheduled for 1 p.m. ET Monday, Nov. 9, Tuesday, Nov. 10, and Thursday, Nov. 12, with settlement Nov. 16. The schedule supplies the next near-term Treasury financing dates; it does not establish how December reserves will change.