October Payroll Gain Leaves Low-Hire, Low-Fire Trend Unresolved

U.S. employers added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, but the gain does not show whether gross hiring strengthened enough to shift the low-hire, low-fire pattern reflected in September turnover figures.

Unemployment was 4.1%. The October payroll increase exceeded the 48,000 average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Revisions raised August and September payroll growth by a combined 84,000.

September’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) counted 5.402 million hires, 5.319 million total separations, 3.4 million quits and 1.6 million layoffs and discharges. Job openings totaled 7.523 million. Hires, total separations, and layoffs and discharges changed little that month.

The October payroll figure measures the net change in nonfarm payroll employment. JOLTS counts hires during a month, so the October payroll increase does not establish that the number of hires rose. The two measures also cover different months: the payroll report is for October, while the latest JOLTS figures are for September.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta research economist and assistant adviser Paul Mohnen and former economic research analyst David Lee described conditions as “low-hire-low-fire-low-quit.” The phrase reflects the combination of weak hiring, few layoffs and low quits; the available figures do not set a timetable for when that pattern may change.

October JOLTS figures were not yet available. The next release was scheduled for Dec. 1 at 10 a.m. ET (15:00 UTC).