Bitcoin tests $73,000 support as Consorti flags $67,000 risk below 200-day average

Bitcoin's retreat toward $73,000 has brought its 200-day moving average into focus, with a break threatening a test of support around $67,000. Joe Consorti nevertheless maintained that the summer low marked the bottom of the cycle.

In a video published on his X account on November 11, Consorti said Bitcoin's roughly 10% decline over six days had brought it to a level critical to his assessment of the market's trend. His analysis centered on whether the daily close would hold the 200-day moving average.

Consorti said Bitcoin had fallen from just above $81,000 to about $72,900. He distinguished an intraday move below the average from a daily close beneath it, describing a successful defense as consistent with a correction within a bull market.

The decline followed a break below approximately $76,000, the average purchase price of short-term holders, according to Consorti. He said that breach had opened the way toward $73,000. He identified the 200-week moving average around $67,000 as the next support level if the 200-day average failed, a move he would interpret as a structural return to a bear market.

Consorti attributed the immediate selling pressure to stronger-than-expected inflation. Monthly headline inflation was 0.4%, against expectations of 0.3%, while core inflation was 0.3%, compared with a 0.2% forecast, according to the figures he cited. He said the readings increased concern about further interest-rate increases, while pointing to 2017 as an example of Federal Reserve tightening coinciding with a Bitcoin rally.

He also identified weakness in technology stocks and uncertainty about AI spending as sources of pressure. Consorti said investors were questioning whether promised investment in AI data centers would materialize, weighing on Nvidia and the broader sector. Higher rates would increase financing costs and pressure rate-sensitive growth stocks, he argued, making Nvidia's earnings an important test of sentiment.

Consorti described Anthropic's planned initial public offering as another potential drain on available capital. Investors seeking an allocation could sell existing holdings to fund purchases, he argued, creating selling pressure on Bitcoin. He characterized the offering as a major competing demand for capital within the cycle.

His broader assessment rested on the scale of Bitcoin's earlier decline. Consorti cited a fall from about $126,000 in October 2025 to roughly $58,500 on June 30, a drawdown of approximately 53%. From the end of June through the Monday close used in his comparison, Bitcoin had gained about 24% while the Nasdaq had fallen around 6%, which he presented as evidence that Bitcoin had bottomed and begun recovering ahead of stocks.

Consorti acknowledged parallels with 2022, when a summer rebound gave way to fresh lows. He said that rally had failed to reclaim the 200-day moving average amid high inflation and aggressive Fed tightening. By contrast, he said Bitcoin had recovered the average in late summer this time and had outperformed stocks. Those differences underpinned his view that the summer low near $58,000 marked the start of a new bull market, although he acknowledged that continued Bitcoin underperformance during a stock-market recovery would weaken his argument.