Nvidia could fall 25–30% if Jensen Huang leaves, Dan Ives says

Markets are pricing in roughly a 15% chance of Jensen Huang leaving Nvidia within 12 months, according to Dan Ives, who said his departure could trigger a sharp share-price decline and disrupt the broader US AI ecosystem.

The risk extends beyond Nvidia’s leadership. Ives argued that Huang’s exit could change both the company’s direction and the network of investment and financing arrangements built around his role in the AI industry.

In an interview shared on Anthony Pompliano’s X account on November 10, Ives said an announcement that Huang was no longer chief executive could send Nvidia shares down 25–30% in the first trade. His assessment was that the market still expected Huang to remain.

Ives identified Huang’s disclosures to the board as a central question surrounding the China-related allegations discussed in the interview. If Huang had misled directors when previously questioned, Ives said, that could lead to his removal. His expected scenario, however, was a board announcement finding no wrongdoing related to the allegations, accompanied by an apology from Huang, stronger safeguards and new directors.

Huang’s importance reaches beyond running a semiconductor company, Ives said. He credited Huang with assembling investment and financing relationships spanning AI cloud providers, Anthropic and OpenAI. Calling him “irreplaceable” in this situation, Ives argued that Nvidia’s direction would change permanently if he left.

Ives expected an interim leader from inside Nvidia to be more likely than an outside appointment or a merger. He said Huang had 60 direct reports and remained involved in detailed operational decisions, including late-night correspondence, while asserting that Nvidia lacked a succession plan. He also described a market view that a weakened Huang could benefit competitors such as AMD and Broadcom.

Asked whether US chips might flow more freely to China, Ives said he believed that prospect was over. He argued that a tougher stance toward China could unite both political parties, while acknowledging that blocking chip sales could strengthen China’s own capabilities. Huang’s departure could also substantially narrow the US lead over China in AI, he said.

Regardless of how the allegations are resolved, Ives expected a lasting change in Huang’s public standing. Having previously served as a prominent representative of the technology industry, Huang would be viewed differently even if he remained chief executive, Ives said.