Nvidia could fall 25–30% if Jensen Huang leaves, Dan Ives says

Nvidia shares could fall 25–30% in their first trade following news that Jensen Huang was leaving as chief executive, according to Dan Ives. He said the disruption could extend across the US AI industry because of Huang’s role in connecting its investment and financing networks.

In a conversation published on Anthony Pompliano’s X account on November 10, Ives put the probability of Huang leaving within 12 months at about 15%. He said the market appeared to reflect a similar likelihood, with investors largely expecting Huang to remain.

Ives said congressional hearings and a board investigation could change that assessment. A key question, he said, was whether Huang had misled the board when asked about the matter previously. The discussion did not establish whether the espionage allegations it raised were true. Ives envisaged a scenario in which the board found no wrongdoing related to those allegations, introduced additional safeguards and new directors, and retained Huang.

His assessment of the potential disruption centered on Nvidia’s dependence on Huang. Ives said about 60 people reported directly to him and described his involvement in details such as marketing slides at 3 a.m. An internal executive could take over temporarily, he said, but Nvidia lacked an adequate succession plan. He described Huang as irreplaceable in the circumstances.

Ives said Huang had personally helped assemble the investment and financing relationships linking specialist AI cloud providers and companies such as Anthropic. He argued that the industry’s circular financing arrangements depended heavily on those relationships. Huang’s departure, in his view, would permanently change Nvidia’s direction and could substantially narrow the gap between the US and China in AI.

He also linked gains in other semiconductor shares to the view that a weakened Huang could benefit competitors, including AMD and Broadcom. Given Nvidia’s role in US-China technology competition, Ives said the implications extended beyond leadership at a single company.

On chip exports to China, Ives said he believed the prospect of US chips flowing more freely into that market was over. He also acknowledged the competing concern that withholding chips could strengthen China’s own capabilities, underscoring the tension between export restrictions and preserving the US technological lead.