Bitcoin could fall below $57,000 before a stronger first half of 2027, analyst says

Bitcoin may need a further year-end selloff to establish conditions for a stronger first half of 2027. A surge in trading volume accompanying capitulation has yet to emerge, leaving the end of the bear market uncertain.

In a November 12 interview with Altcoin Daily, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowan said he expected Bitcoin to fall below $57,000 during Trump's term. He acknowledged uncertainty about the market's direction and said whether Bitcoin establishes a fresh low before year-end could change his outlook for the following year.

Cowan based his bearish case on Bitcoin's performance in U.S. midterm election years. Citing 2014, 2018 and 2022, he said declines in the first quarter and summer typically preceded a final fourth-quarter drop. With first-quarter and summer declines already recorded this year, he viewed the current weakness as consistent with that pattern.

He also questioned whether Bitcoin's move above $87,000, which cleared a previous high, confirmed a sustained recovery. Although breaks above earlier highs and the 50-week moving average have previously preceded further gains, Cowan said those comparisons were less useful in a midterm election year. He suggested they could become more relevant in 2027, the year before the next halving.

Trading volume was central to his assessment of whether the bear market had ended. Cowan said previous bear markets, including 2019–2020, concluded with a volume spike. In his view, a fresh low that resets on-chain indicators and forces sufficient capitulation could create conditions for a stronger first half of 2027. He said that high-volume flush had yet to occur.

His outlook could change if Bitcoin avoids a new low before year-end. Cowan said a near-term move below $57,000 would arguably need to happen within that window. Otherwise, he and other market participants could turn bullish.

Cowan also cautioned that market cycles need not look identical. He described the latest bull market as lacking both a euphoric, parabolic rally and a rotation into altcoins. While acknowledging differences between successive bull and bear markets, he maintained that Bitcoin's current weakness remained consistent with its historical cycle patterns.