[Satoshi Index] Top Traders' 24-Hour Long Share Falls Below 6%; Bitcoin Shorts at 99%

‘Satoshi Index’ is a daily series by SATOSHI NOTE™ analyzing top traders' current positions using on-chain data. The data is updated hourly, and figures reflect the snapshot times stated in the article. [Editor's note]

As of 3:22 p.m. on November 13, positions held by the top-performing traders over the past 24 hours across four exchanges—Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX and Pacifica—totaled approximately $123 million in longs and $1.984 billion in shorts, with longs accounting for about 6%. These figures aggregate positions by asset after separately selecting the top 100 traders by 24-hour performance on each exchange.

At 5:19 a.m. today, the same 24-hour group held approximately $172 million in longs and $1.999 billion in shorts, with a long share of 7.9%. Over roughly 10 hours, longs fell by about $49 million while shorts changed little, lowering the long share by 2.1 percentage points. Comparing Hyperliquid prices at 8:41 a.m. and 5:41 p.m., Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.3% from $71,220 to $68,848, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 3.9% from $2,014 to $1,936.

The seven-day group held approximately $179 million in longs and $2.191 billion in shorts, with longs accounting for 7.5%. That was 0.6 percentage points below the morning's 8.1%, while shorts continued to account for more than 90%.

The 30-day group held approximately $178 million in longs and $2.305 billion in shorts, with a long share of 7.2%. That was down 2.3 percentage points from 9.5% in the morning. Unrealized profits totaled approximately $299 million for the 24-hour group, $333 million for the seven-day group and $347 million for the 30-day group, all higher than in the morning.

For BTC, the 24-hour group had 46 traders holding longs and 220 holding shorts, with the number holding shorts up from the morning's 66 long traders and 186 short traders. Positions totaled approximately $4.14 million in longs and $848 million in shorts, putting the short share above 99%. The seven-day group had 60 long traders and 204 short traders. The share of traders holding longs fell from 32% in the morning to 23%, the largest change among assets that could be compared with the morning table. The seven-day group held approximately $43.5 million in longs and $867 million in shorts. The 30-day group had 60 long traders and 207 short traders.

For ETH, the 24-hour group had 60 long traders and 162 short traders, a similar mix to the morning's 56 long traders and 146 short traders. Longs totaled approximately $19.95 million and shorts $345 million, with the long share at about 6%, down from approximately 12% in the morning. The seven-day group had 56 long traders and 177 short traders, with longs accounting for 24% of traders. Positions totaled approximately $12.8 million in longs and $407 million in shorts. The 30-day group had 59 long traders and 172 short traders.

For Zcash (ZEC), the share of traders holding longs in the seven-day group rose from 25% in the morning to 29%, moving higher unlike BTC. There were 37 long traders and 92 short traders, with approximately $11.2 million in longs and $151 million in shorts, leaving shorts far larger. The price fell 3.6% over 24 hours, and this group's unrealized profit was approximately $40.4 million.

For HYPE, the 24-hour group shifted from 38 long traders and 107 short traders to 46 long traders and 101 short traders. However, shorts remained larger, with approximately $11.5 million in longs and $227 million in shorts. The price rose 1.1% over 24 hours. Among the top 20 assets by position value, Nvidia (NVDA) remained the only asset in the 24-hour group with more money in longs than shorts, as in the morning.

These groups are reselected every hour based on performance over each period, so their directional shares can change when the accounts in the rankings change. Short-term rankings favor those who correctly anticipated price movements during that period. With BTC down 6.3% and ETH down 5.5% over 24 hours, the increase in the 24-hour group's unrealized profits can also be read in light of this selection effect.

Also, because the figures aggregate only positions held by the top 100 traders on each of the four exchanges, a few large positions can heavily influence the overall shares by value. The approximately $867 million in BTC shorts held by the seven-day group is one example. Positions on other exchanges and spot holdings are excluded, so it is also impossible to determine whether these positions are hedged. Current positions reflect only the current state; they do not indicate future direction.

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Investment notice: This article is intended to provide information based on public on-chain data and does not recommend buying or selling any particular cryptoasset or taking any investment direction. Top traders' current positions and past performance do not guarantee future returns. Investors are solely responsible for all investment decisions and their consequences.