Bitcoin Holder Losses Hit Recent Highs as Total Nears June-July Bear-Market Bottom

Bitcoin’s entity-adjusted realized losses on transfers to trading platforms hit recent highs for both long- and short-term holders Nov. 12, while their combined total neared levels from the June-July bear-market bottom, analyst Murphy said.

Murphy said crypto market sentiment had returned to extreme fear. He cited a Binance shock, concerns about limits on AI infrastructure after Democrats’ midterm gains, hotter-than-expected inflation data, a sharp Nvidia decline amid a scandal and MSTR’s removal from an MSCI index.

Murphy said he had underestimated the impact of collective panic and the short-selling forces behind it. He said technical supports had failed as irrational behavior dominated. He described February through November this year as a transition after a bear-market bottom structure formed, consistent with an earlier cyclical recovery view. Murphy said he would use incoming data to assess sentiment and look for signs of improvement and converging indicators before taking long positions on dips.