HSBC Downgrades Nvidia to Hold Over Succession and Export Risks

HSBC analyst Frank Lee downgraded Nvidia to hold from buy Friday, citing uncertainty over its leadership transition and the possibility of tighter export restrictions. Nvidia has not named a permanent successor to Jensen Huang, and Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress is serving as interim CEO. The rating change adds an investor view to the Nvidia succession debate.

Lee cut his price target to $170 from $365, implying 2.3% upside from Thursday’s close. His base case for Nvidia’s fiscal 2028 earnings per share (EPS) is $15.65.

Countries outside the U.S. and Taiwan accounted for 11% of Nvidia’s total revenue over the past six quarters. His downside scenario assumes Nvidia loses 11% of its fiscal 2028 revenue, reducing the $15.65 EPS base case by 13%, to $13.57. That downside estimate is 14% below the $15.77 analyst consensus.

“We believe the uncertainties will prevail until a permanent succession plan is laid out and the new CEO is able to demonstrate execution capabilities,” Lee said.