Bitcoin May Have Reached Its Cycle Low or Could Face One More Decline, Hashdex CIO Says

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage said Bitcoin's June low may mark the cycle bottom, though the asset could fall further before a recovery, as smaller swings and wider crypto use reshape the market's cycle profile.

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 Friday. Kerbage put the current cycle's deepest peak-to-trough loss at about 53%, reached in June, and said the market may have bottomed then or could see another decline before a recovery.

Earlier cycles had deeper losses. Kerbage cited declines of 84% and 83% in Bitcoin's first two major cycles, followed by 77% in the third. Gains from one cycle peak to the next also narrowed, he said, from 1,598% to 250% and then 85%. The current cycle's deepest decline is smaller than each of those historical losses.

Volatility has also declined across the cycles. Kerbage said Bitcoin's average annualized volatility was about 80% in its first two cycles, 53% in the third and approximately 44% in the current cycle. He also compared Bitcoin with gold: Bitcoin was nearly 10 times as volatile in 2017, about twice as volatile in 2025 and roughly 1.5 times as volatile in 2026. Kerbage described the lower volatility as a sign of a maturing market.

He pointed to activity beyond Bitcoin's price as a separate sign of crypto-market expansion. Since July 2024, the count of Brazilian wallets with stablecoin balances of $10,000 or more has grown 347%, Kerbage said. Stablecoin transactions worldwide totaled $1.79 trillion in June, 125% above their year-earlier level. Visa's stablecoin settlement volume also increased 10-fold over the past year.

Kerbage cited tokenization alongside stablecoins as evidence that crypto-market activity can expand during a Bitcoin downturn. Hashdex's earlier view also linked wider institutional participation to changing market dynamics and potentially less pronounced rallies and corrections than in past cycles.

The market-bottom question has also appeared in previous commentary. Lyn Alden's view that Bitcoin's cycle low may be behind it cited leverage being flushed out and fast money leaving the market, while noting that fresh demand could take longer to return.