[Satoshi Index] Top traders’ 24-hour long share falls from 14% to 8%; long-led assets hit zero

‘Satoshi Index’ is a daily series by SATOSHI NOTE™ analyzing top traders’ current positions using on-chain data. Data is updated hourly, and figures reflect the compilation time stated in the article. [Editor’s note]

As of 8:08 a.m. on November 15, top-performing traders over the past 24 hours across Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX and Pacifica held approximately $158 million in long positions and $1.733 billion in short positions, with longs accounting for about 8%. These figures sum positions by asset after separately identifying the top 100 traders by 24-hour performance on each exchange.

At 2:54 p.m., the compilation time for yesterday evening’s 6 p.m. report, the same 24-hour group held approximately $266 million in longs and $1.588 billion in shorts, with a long share of 14.4%. Over about 17 hours, longs fell by approximately $108 million and shorts rose by approximately $145 million, lowering the long share by 6.1 percentage points. Comparing Hyperliquid prices at 5:41 p.m. yesterday and 8:41 a.m. today, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 5.4% from $67,065 to $63,424, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 8.3% from $1,898 to $1,741.

The seven-day group held approximately $178 million in longs and $1.899 billion in shorts, with longs accounting for 8.6%. That was up 1.0 percentage point from 7.6% yesterday evening, while short positions fell by approximately $197 million.

The 30-day group held approximately $228 million in longs and $1.879 billion in shorts, with a long share of 10.8%. That was up 2.1 percentage points from 8.7% yesterday evening. Unrealized profits were approximately $442 million for the 24-hour group, $498 million for the seven-day group and $489 million for the 30-day group, all higher than yesterday evening’s $249 million, $358 million and $376 million, respectively.

For BTC, the 24-hour group had 61 traders holding longs and 187 holding shorts, with fewer long traders and more short traders than yesterday evening’s 69 and 165, respectively. Positions totaled approximately $23.8 million in longs and $627 million in shorts, with shorts accounting for 96%. The seven-day group had 65 long traders and 194 short traders, holding approximately $59.9 million in longs and $729 million in shorts. The 30-day group had 67 long traders and 195 short traders.

For ETH, the 24-hour group had 62 long traders and 152 short traders. Compared with yesterday evening’s 59 long traders and 121 short traders, the number holding longs rose by three while those holding shorts increased by 31. Positions totaled approximately $50.2 million in longs and $281 million in shorts, with a long share of 15%. The seven-day group had 62 long traders and 163 short traders, with long traders accounting for 28%, unchanged from yesterday evening. The 24-hour group had approximately $66.5 million in unrealized profits.

For Monero (XMR), the seven-day group had 43 long traders and 42 short traders. The share of traders holding longs rose from 43% yesterday evening to 51%, the largest change among assets that could be compared with yesterday evening’s table. The 24-hour group had 40 long traders and 37 short traders, holding approximately $2.3 million in longs and $16 million in shorts, with a long share of 12.5%. Yesterday evening, the amounts were nearly equal at approximately $13.7 million in longs and $13.65 million in shorts. Among the top 20 assets by position value, none had more longs than shorts by value in the 24-hour group this morning, down from three—XMR, MON and SPY—yesterday evening. XMR’s price fell 12.4% over 24 hours.

For Hype (HYPE), the 24-hour group held approximately $7.1 million in longs and $317 million in shorts, with a long share of 2.2%. Compared with approximately $48.7 million in longs and $238 million in shorts yesterday evening, when the long share was 17.0%, the value of longs fell to about one-seventh of its previous level. The number of traders shifted from 46 holding longs and 105 holding shorts to 39 holding longs and 136 holding shorts. The price fell 11.7% over 24 hours.

These groups are selected again every hour based on performance over each period, so changes in the accounts making the rankings can also change the directional shares. Short-term rankings favor traders who correctly anticipated price movements during that period. With BTC down 6.9% and ETH down 9.5% over 24 hours, the 24-hour group’s approximately $442 million in unrealized profits can also be read in light of this selection effect.

The figures also sum only the positions of the top 100 traders on each of the four exchanges, so a few large positions can heavily influence the overall shares by value. The BTC seven-day group’s approximately $729 million in shorts is one example. Holdings on other exchanges and spot holdings are excluded, so it is also impossible to determine whether positions are hedged. Current positions reflect only the current situation; they do not indicate future direction.

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Investment caution: This article provides information based on publicly available on-chain data and does not recommend buying or selling any particular crypto asset or taking any investment direction. Top traders’ current positions and past performance do not guarantee future returns, and investors bear sole responsibility for all investment decisions.