Rick Rieder Emerges as Leading Contender to Replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term set to expire in May, prediction markets and investors are increasingly focused on who US President Donald Trump may choose as his replacement. While several names have circulated in recent months, momentum has shifted sharply toward BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder as the leading contender.

Prediction market data shows Rieder gaining significant traction. Both Polymarket and Kalshi currently assign him roughly a 45% chance of being nominated as the next Fed Chair, placing him ahead of other widely discussed candidates such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller and former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh. This surge in confidence follows comments Trump made during a CNBC interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he described Rieder as “very impressive” and hinted that his shortlist had narrowed to one person in his mind.

According to reporting from Bloomberg, Rieder’s appeal lies in his outsider status. Unlike Waller or Warsh, he has never worked at the Federal Reserve, making him less closely associated with existing institutional culture. He has also expressed openness to structural changes at the Fed, a stance that aligns with Trump’s long-running criticism of the central bank’s policies and leadership.

Just weeks ago, Kevin Hassett appeared to be the frontrunner. As director of the US National Economic Council, Hassett consistently advocated for lower interest rates and echoed Trump’s economic priorities. However, Trump recently signaled he prefers Hassett to remain in his current role, leading to a sharp drop in Hassett’s odds, which now sit near 8% on Polymarket.

Beyond the political intrigue, markets are closely watching what a leadership change could mean for interest rates. Trump has been vocal about his desire for lower rates, a shift that could inject liquidity into financial markets. Historically, lower rates have boosted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, sustained pressure on the Federal Reserve’s independence could unsettle bond markets and increase volatility across equities and crypto alike.

As Powell’s exit approaches, investors across traditional and digital asset markets will continue to monitor prediction markets, Fed signals, and Trump’s rhetoric for clues about the future direction of US monetary policy.