George Santos Gets Lifetime Kalshi Ban Over Trades

Former U.S. Representative George Santos has become the first person to receive a lifetime ban from prediction market platform Kalshi after allegedly manipulating contracts tied to his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech.

Kalshi said Santos placed large trades on whether he would attend the event and later made public statements about his plans that could influence contract prices. The platform accused him of making some false or misleading comments before ultimately betting that he would not attend. Santos reportedly earned about $18,000 from the trades.

Along with permanently banning Santos, Kalshi imposed financial penalties exceeding $70,000. Federal authorities have also reportedly examined the trading activity. Santos did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Kalshi said the Santos case was among five recent enforcement actions as prediction markets strengthen safeguards against manipulation and insider trading. Other traders received temporary suspensions after cooperating with investigations, while Santos received a permanent ban partly because of his lack of cooperation.

The former congressman was expelled from the U.S. House of Representatives in 2023 amid criminal investigations. He later served prison time for fraud before Trump commuted his sentence in 2025.

Regulators are also increasing scrutiny of prediction market trading. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently ordered former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez to pay more than $170,000 and imposed a three-year trading ban. Perez traded Kalshi “mention” contracts linked to words Trump might use during public appearances.

Meanwhile, rival prediction market Polymarket is stepping up surveillance ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. The company says it uses machine learning, blockchain analytics, trade monitoring and open-source intelligence to detect suspicious activity.

Polymarket has referred more than 100 cases to authorities, including wagers involving alleged classified information and possible insider trading before U.S. military action in Iran. The enforcement efforts highlight growing pressure on Kalshi, Polymarket and the wider prediction market industry to prevent manipulation as election-related betting expands.