ECB Council Member Radev Rejects Preset Path Before September Decision

ECB Governing Council member Dimitar Radev said Aug. 26 that future policy moves should remain data-dependent, keeping October and December decisions open before the central bank’s Sept. 10 rate increase.

Radev, who is governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, said the ECB should not be bound to a preset path after its September decision. He described the next two meetings as “live” and rejected the idea of an automatic rate move after September.

“The Governing Council’s September decision would not predetermine subsequent steps,” Radev said. “Patience in this case does not mean passivity.”

The ECB raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 10, its second increase of that size in 2026. Effective Sept. 16, the deposit facility rate stood at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%.

The central bank said decisions would be made meeting by meeting and would reflect the inflation outlook, incoming economic and financial data, underlying inflation and the strength of monetary-policy transmission. “We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path,” the ECB said.

The framework leaves additional increases and a pause among the policy options under consideration, rather than establishing a confirmed path for either outcome.

ECB staff projected euro-area headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. The projections keep inflation above the ECB’s 2% medium-term target through 2028.

Real gross domestic product growth was projected at 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028. The ECB attributed much of the inflation pressure to an energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East and said risks to inflation and economic growth would depend on the shock’s intensity and duration.

The October and December meetings will provide the next scheduled opportunities for the Governing Council to reassess rates using the incoming data and updated inflation outlook.