Jez Sees Perpetual-Futures Market Growing About 10x Despite Leverage Risks

Jez, a co-builder of Papertrade, said the perpetual-futures market could grow about 10 times while warning that leverage can turn a correct market view into a losing trade.

“The problem isn't direction, it's variance,” Jez said in an interview published Oct. 9.

He said most retail traders should avoid derivatives, keep stable employment and use wages as capital while developing investment ideas. An investor using 8x leverage, he said, can lose money when random price movements trigger losses or liquidation, even if the broader market direction is correct.

Jez said traders should focus on opportunities they understand deeply. A high-conviction thesis should withstand a 20% drawdown and may take six to nine months to play out, while his own view on perpetual futures took about six years to develop.

“This perps market overall will grow 10x,” Jez said.

Papertrade is an on-chain perpetual-futures exchange on Hyperliquid that offers leverage of up to 1,000x. Its contracts use synthetic swaps settled between traders and a liquidity provider, with prices linked to Hyperliquid’s BBO mid-price through HyperEVM precompiles.

The platform’s liquidity pool grows from cumulative user losses, while profitable trades face an asymmetric haircut. The model differs from a conventional order book, where buyers and sellers are matched directly.

Jez described a 2% portfolio loss on Oct. 10, 2025, followed about a month later by a larger Bitcoin (BTC) loss after he entered a long position near $103,000. He also said he bought Lighter as its price fell from about $3 to below $1, citing zero-fee retail trading and its Ethereum infrastructure.

“Diversification is for protecting the account, not for making money,” Jez said.

His comments distinguish a long-term belief in persistent speculative demand from the risks of leveraged trading. He attributed his own past blowups to greed, weak risk management and emotional decisions, while arguing that younger people may continue turning to speculation as traditional paths to wealth become more difficult.