Musk Estimates AI Could Add $30 Trillion in Annual Global Output

Tesla and SpaceX chief Elon Musk estimated that advanced artificial intelligence could add about $30 trillion a year to global output, an expansion he sees as a possible way to address U.S. debt.

In an interview recorded Aug. 6 and released Oct. 20, Musk put the potential increase from digital superintelligence at 20% to 30% of global goods and services. He described the range as a rough guess. A roughly 30% increase, he said, would amount to about $30 trillion in additional output each year.

“The only way we're going to solve the national debt is with AI and robots,” Musk said. He suggested that robots performing physical work could produce larger gains than digital AI alone.

The estimate concerns worldwide production, while the debt is owed by the U.S. government. Musk gave no timetable for those gains or a mechanism for turning them into federal debt payments.

Gross U.S. debt stood at $40.25 trillion as of Oct. 5. The federal deficit for fiscal 2026, which ended Sept. 30, was estimated at $2.0 trillion. Under current spending and revenue policies, debt held by the public is projected to grow faster than the U.S. economy.

Musk linked his view to his time with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). He said spending cuts might close the deficit if the president made that a primary goal, but he saw little political appetite in Washington for the cuts required.

DOGE claimed $110 billion in savings from terminated contracts, grants and leases as of July 7. Some of its estimates were incorrect or lacked supporting evidence. One claimed $1.7 billion in savings on a contract that was not terminated and whose scope, value and funding were not reduced; that contract produced no savings.

Reflecting on his DOGE role, Musk said he should have kept a lower public profile and probably limited the effort to one or two months. He separately said he should have returned to his AI work sooner.