Powell Firing Rumor Shakes Polymarket Odds After Congresswoman's X Post

Speculation surged briefly in the prediction markets after Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna claimed on X that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s firing was “imminent.” The post pushed the "yes" odds on Polymarket up by 4%, from 23% to 27%, before retreating to 25% as skepticism returned.

Despite the bold statement, Luna offered no evidence to support her claim. She also holds no direct authority over the Federal Reserve, serving instead on the House Oversight and Natural Resources Committees. Her affiliation with the House Freedom Caucus and Second Amendment Caucus further underscores her outsider status on monetary policy matters.

Polymarket bettors reacted swiftly but cautiously. The Federal Reserve Act limits removal of its governors to cases involving inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance—not for political or policy disagreements. Legal precedent, notably the 1935 Supreme Court ruling in Humphrey's Executor v. United States, reinforces protections against arbitrary dismissals. That ruling blocked FDR from firing an FTC commissioner, and scholars widely interpret it as extending similar protections to Fed officials.

While President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to oust Powell, even during his first term, any effort to do so would likely face legal hurdles.

Crypto markets appeared unfazed by the controversy. Bitcoin remained flat throughout the episode, suggesting traders don't anticipate any real threat to Powell's tenure.

The incident highlights the intersection of politics, finance, and prediction markets—where even unverified social media posts can momentarily sway sentiment. For now, Jerome Powell’s position appears secure, but the political noise surrounding his leadership continues to create speculative opportunities for market watchers.