Global Public Debt Is Projected to Reach 100% of GDP by 2029

Global public debt is projected to reach 100% of gross domestic product by 2029, while long-range U.S. estimates show that delaying debt stabilization would require a larger fiscal adjustment.

The global ratio is projected to rise from 93.9% of GDP in 2025 to 100% in 2029, with major economies driving much of the increase. The projections use information available through April 1, 2026.

In the United States, debt held by the public was 99% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2025. Over the next 75 years, projected Social Security, Medicare and other social-insurance spending is estimated to exceed dedicated revenues by about $88.4 trillion in present-value terms. The estimate depends on economic and demographic assumptions and is not an amount due today.

A separate fiscal-gap estimate puts the average primary-surplus increase needed to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio over 75 years at 4.7% of GDP if the adjustment starts in 2026. If it starts in 2036, the estimated increase rises to 5.6% of GDP. These estimates also depend on assumptions, including revenue growth.

Central-bank purchases of long-term government debt can ease government financing conditions while changing the public sector’s exposure to interest-rate movements. Funding those purchases with interest-bearing reserves can shorten the maturity of the public sector’s combined liabilities, making its finances more sensitive to rate increases.

The figures describe projected fiscal pressures and interest-rate exposure. They do not establish that a sovereign debt crisis is imminent.