Anthropic Forecasts Billions in 2026 Revenue at Risk Across Its Business

Anthropic’s chief financial officer projected that government actions could reduce the company’s 2026 revenue by hundreds of millions to multiple billions of dollars, with the potential impact extending across its business depending on how customers responded.

Krishna Rao made the projection in a March court declaration. It described possible revenue effects, not losses already recorded. Rao separately estimated that hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue tied to Department of Defense work could be at risk.

A California federal court’s March order summarized evidence that three deals worth more than $180 million fell apart. The order also described customers ending contracts, seeking shorter terms or reducing spending.

The dispute centers on Anthropic’s restrictions on military uses of Claude, including fully autonomous lethal weapons and mass domestic surveillance. The Department of War sought unrestricted access for every lawful defense purpose.

On Sept. 25, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit rejected Anthropic’s challenge to the department’s exclusion of Claude from its supply chain in a 2-1 decision. That case involved the Pentagon-specific exclusion and a different legal authority from the California proceeding, where a judge had blocked broader government actions.

The appeals decision does not establish the financial effect on Anthropic’s commercial business. Rao’s projection described potential effects across the company, depending on how customers and partners interpreted the government’s actions.