U.S. Interest Costs Are Projected to More Than Double by 2036

Federal interest costs are projected to more than double over the next decade as debt held by the public rises relative to the U.S. economy, adding to pressure on the federal budget.

Net interest outlays are projected to increase from $1 trillion in fiscal 2026 to $2.1 trillion in 2036. Debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101% of gross domestic product in 2026 to 120% in 2036.

The projections do not set a date for a market crisis or predict one is imminent. High and rising debt would increase the risk of a fiscal crisis, defined as investors losing confidence in the value of U.S. government debt.

The fiscal 2026 baseline estimates a $1.9 trillion federal deficit and reflects laws in place as of Jan. 14, 2026. These are projections, not final results for the fiscal year.

Debt measures vary. Total public debt outstanding includes debt held by the public as well as intragovernmental holdings, while the debt-to-GDP projections refer to debt held by the public.